Ukraine is Finished.

January 23, 2024

I mean the Country, not the War.

revisions April 27, 2024

I have been following the Ukraine war for some time. I have blog posted greatly about the war for the past two years. I have not posted so much recently because not much new has happened.

Now Ukraine is bumped off as the main focus of war bloggers by the Gaza conflict. This is as it should be because Gaza has greater consequences. A whole people are up for extermination. The risk of a regional war leading to nuclear war is greater.

But the Ukraine conflict is still there. It is becoming clear it will be there until the Ukrainian state is no longer there. That will not be much longer.

I mean, not much longer in historic terms. There is an old saying, history moves fast when you are reading it, but slowly when you are living it. Watching it unfold in real time, it seems to drag on forever.

I will briefly summarize how the present situation got here.

The word “Ukraine” means borderland. It is a rich and desirable territory. Yet it has been sparsely inhabited for most of history.

It has no natural defences. It is in the path of every nomadic empire coming out of the east, or imperial power from the west. People from north and south have tried to settle it.

It is a prize to be fought over, or a buffer zone against enemies. Any people trying to put down roots there have been under constant attack. They all eventually gave up and moved away.

Until a little over two centuries ago, Ukraine was “the wild fields”, sparsely inhabited by a few warlike cossacks and tartars. The powers on the periphery tried to manipulate the conflicts between these peoples.

Russia under Catherine the Great conquered most of this territory, driving out the Ottoman empire from its Crimean bases. At the same time, Poland collapsed and Austria took over its position. The Galician speaking cossack groups came under Austrian control.

Russians settled the south and east parts of this territory. The Austrians brought Galician peasants to settle the north and west. Various other ethnicities got pieces of the wild fields as they opened up for settlement, such as the Molodovans from Romania, and some Hungarians.

Austria and Russia were frequent rivals. After world war one Austria collapsed. Russia, under the Soviet Union, took over the west parts of Ukraine.

It is said that the Soviets created Ukraine. They lumped all these people together into one subnational government. They made a mess of it and should have given each of these ethnicities their own government.

The Galicians had developed a particularly nasty form of national identity. They do not tolerate other people well. When the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union, they found the Galicians to be especially useful in controlling the other nationalities which they wanted to displace.

This was, until the Nazis started losing. Then the Galicians rebelled against the Nazis and tried to create their own Nazi state. Galician nationalist fanatics waged a terrorist war against the Soviets for years after the world war.

The Soviet Union disappeared. Ukraine became an independent country, despite most of its people not really wanting to be. Western covert agencies again used the Galicians as the tool to get control of Ukraine. After a coup in Kiev in 2014, they succeeded.

Russia made the strategic blunder of the century by not intervening right then. The Russian government at that time still thought it would eventually come to some sort of accord with the west. This was very foolish.

The most essential fact of world politics since the time of Mackinder is that the Atlantic empire rules the world. It does not have allies. It does not have “partners”. A country is a vassal state, open to ‘investment’, or it is an enemy.

Donbass War

Another essential fact of politics is that Fascists are going to do Fascist things. Banderite fascism had been almost wiped out in Galicia during Soviet times. However, Banderites who had fled abroad recreated and passed their ideas to their children and grandchildren.

These were a resource for western covert agencies to reseed Banderite Fascism back into Ukraine. After the coup of 2014, they began attacking Russian speakers in the south east of Ukraine. In the industrial area of Donbass, ethnic Russians fought back and drove them out.

These people created ‘people’s republics’ and effective defence forces. At the insistence of Russia, they did not demand independence from Ukraine, but only civil rights and autonomy for ethnic Russians. Ukraine at that time had no effective army to send against them.

A series of negotiations and treaties took place between the Ukraine Fascist government and the Donbass republics. The Russians held back from this but provided material assistance to Donbass. The ‘Ukronazis’ kept making agreements in order to buy themselves time whenever they were losing, and then breaking them as soon as they had rebuilt their forces, so they could resume attacking the Donbass cities.

A ‘frozen conflict’ continued for eight years. Ukraine built up a powerful army with western help. It constructed a fortified ring around Donbass. It kept constantly shelling its cities.

During this time, Ukraine became one of the most corrupt countries on earth. It became the ‘404’ country, with normal government slowly and quietly disappearing. It was run by the CIA, who used the neoNazi militias it had built up to maintain control and compliance.

In late 2021, it became clear that Ukraine was planning an overwhelming attack on Donbass, which the Donbass militias could not overcome. Russia announced a special military operation in February of 2022. That meant, an operation to achieve an objective short of total war.

How the War got Fought

Initially, the war went well for Russia. It had control of the air. It soon took key points in eastern Ukraine, and partly encircled Kiev.

The Ukraine army was mostly conscripts, with units of Nazi fanatics acting as ‘blocking units’. Blocking units are used to prevent front line units from retreating. This system is not fully effective when the blockers are also subject to air attack.

However, problems with the Russian army were soon revealed. While in some ways it was well prepared for a mechanized war, it was rusty. It did not have enough infantry. Its tactics were out of date. It was full of ‘operetta generals’.

There was a ceasefire and negotiations. Ukraine agreed to Russia’s basic demands. These were; autonomy for Russian speaking areas, demilitarization of Ukraine, and denazification.

As soon as Ukraine had rearmed and rested its troops, and Russia had pulled back from Kiev and some strategic points, Ukraine tore up this agreement. Some of the people who negotiated for Ukraine, and signed the agreement, were murdered by the Ukronazi thugs. This was the third time the Ukronazis had played Russia in this way.

During the summer of 2022, Ukraine went on the offensive against Russia and the Donbass states. These stayed on the defensive and reorganized their lines. They withdrew from points which were too difficult to defend, especially the city of Kherson.

Ukraine and western propaganda spun this as victories. In fact, Ukraine’s second wave, equipped with western arms, was chewed up by the Russians. However, it was clear that Russia did not have enough forces and could not keep going this way.

In September of 2022, Russia ordered a partial mobilization. Defence plants were taken out of mothballs and put into production. The army was brought up to strength and began training for this new kind of war.

Post Soviet Russia had developed a system where it had a small standing army, mostly made up of volunteers. Men were conscripted for short periods of training and service in a reserve force. They could be called up in war and put into regular units, which could be expanded; brigades made up to full divisions.

Russia has not fought a mechanized war since 1945. However, it has a very advanced military science and has not forgotten how to fight them. It simply needed some updating.

Russia found it was short of some things. It did not have enough drones. It had to buy them, or designs for them, from the Iranians.

Its communications systems were not secure enough. Several generals were targeted and killed in the first year of the war. Nonetheless, its electronic warfare capabilities are much superior to the west.

Artillery has been very useful in this type of war. Russians have plenty of artillery pieces. They had trouble in the early part of the war making as many artillery shells as they wanted, but solved that problem. It is clear that western countries will be incapable of more than a fraction of Russias artillery shell production.

Russia soon realized that this war would be a positional war, much like the first world war. So they built a powerful belt of fortifications around areas they wanted to hold. The Ukrainians never built any new defences, beyond what they had already laid around Donbass.

In the summer of 2023, the forces of Kiev went on their ‘counter offensive’. Their aims were completely beyond their abilities, but the western governments kept pushing them to it. They threw away their third wave in futile attacks which never broke even the Russians’s first line of defence.

This force was equipped with every piece of weaponry the western armies could dig out of their warehouses, often leaving not enough for themselves. Ukraine has seriously run out of manpower. An entire generation of its fit young men has been killed, crippled, or fled abroad.

Ukraine has few men of military age. Due to very poor economic conditions post independence, its birth rate was very low. Such young people as were born very often emigrated to find better opportunities.

They cannot even draft men of ages 18 to 25. There are so few of them that if a significant number were killed, it would lead to the “demographic extinction” of Ukraine. That is, no next generation at all.

This war is making Russia much more formidable.

The western rationale for the war, as much as they have one, is to weaken Russia. It created an excuse for economic sanctions which were supposed to wreck the Russian economy. The Russian public was supposed to be unwilling to tolerate mobilizations and economic restrictions due to the war.

The economic measures against Russia have helped its domestic producers. Its economy is growing faster than before the war. Russia is being seen as the leader in the growing worldwide resistance to western hegemony.

The Russian public is strongly behind the war. The morale of the new Russian army is very high. The army has developed into a very powerful force, more than able to deal with what NATO can throw at it.

The Russian government is now fully disillusioned with the west. They have been conned three times and are no longer interested in negotiating with the west or its proxy states. The war will be settled on its terms.

One of its terms is that those areas of Ukraine which identify as Russian are going to be incorporated into Russia. This has already occurred with the Donbass republics, and with two territories which the Russians retook in the first weeks of war. In all four cases, the people voted overwhelmingly to join Russia.

Ukraine has been destroyed by the war.

Ukraine has already lost half its population; killed, fled abroad, or absorbed into Russia. Its economy has collapsed. Its government is dependent on western aid to keep basic services going. Half a million Ukrainians have died.

There is no vestige of democracy. All parties but the ruling party are outlawed. The streets are ruled by thugs from the Ukronazi militias.

Basic infrastructure remains in operation because the Russians allow them. They know they are going to have to rebuild whatever is damaged. They are going to have to govern the populations of these territories and gain their good will.

A great concern is that the Ukronazis and their western handlers will adopt a scorched earth policy. They may destroy everything as they retreat. Anything to damage Russia, force it to pay to rebuild everything.

The rulers of Ukraine are now turning on each other. The American covert services operatives are starting to lose control. The latest unconfirmed information is that the army chief of staff has been replaced by the former head of one of the intelligence services, who has no military experience.

The army field commanders are said to be mutinous. They no longer have any reserves. Even the Ukronazi blocker battalions are much depleted. The flow of ammunition is drying up.

There is much speculation about what the Russians will do now.

The Russians have taken a ‘slow grind’ approach to the war. It has worked very well for them. They are working on their own schedule.

Ukrainian strongpoints along the front line are being taken down one at a time. Ukraine is having to shuffle troops around to try to hold them. There is speculation the Russians will open a new front along the parts of its border north of the present battle lines, to stretch the Ukrainians even thinner.

This would also protect Russian cities from provocation attacks by Ukraine. The Ukronazis have continued shelling the Donbass cities up to the present. Lately they have been focused on giving the Russian city of Belgorod some of the same fun and excitement.

The Russians have never responded to all this with attacks on civilian populations, despite all the nonsense in the western media bubble. Their intelligence services are watching closely and keeping records of who is responsible for all this. As with the Nazis after the world war, they will be pursued as long as they live.

Eventually, the Russians are going to have to go on the attack. However, they are unlikely to engage in world war two style ‘big arrow’ attacks. What has been shown by this war is that modern technology gives the defender a huge advantage.

Rapid attacks will require accepting high casualties. Russians are trying to minimize their casualties. Also, civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure.

Russians suggest that the war could go on for years yet. However, it will end when they have achieved their goals. These have expanded somewhat since the negotiations of 2022.

They have seen that the west is, in their term, “non agreement capable.” That is, cannot be trusted to keep their word. Ukraine must not be allowed to exist as a base for any kind of Nazi groups.

Thus, it seems inevitable that Ukraine must be entirely occupied by Russia. There is little the western powers will be able to do about it. They do not dare challenge Russia directly.

What Ukraine will look like after Ukraine.

It has been observed that Ukraine is in three parts; a west, middle, and east. The east identifies itself with Russia and is eager to be absorbed into it.

The west is Galicia. The language called Ukrainian is the Galician language. Galicians have long been noted for a really toxic form of nationalism.

This kind of nationalism seemed to have been extinguished in the old Soviet Union. It lived on among the Ukronazis who fled west with the German Nazis and established exile communities in many western countries. It has been built up again since the fall of the Soviet Union and especially since 2014.

However, once Russia occupies Galicia again, it can once again eradicate this mentality. People who have checked out of humanity by buying into this kind of mentality will be either killed, reformed, locked up for the duration, or fled abroad again. The problem with this is that Russia will have to wage another antiterrorism campaign, against real terrorists.

Russia would not want to absorb Galicia. It would be happy to see it as a friendly state with a similar history and culture, and as a buffer on its western frontier, much like Belarus. There are plenty of Galicians who would like such an arrangement as well, although for obvious reasons they keep their mouths shut these days.

So, Russia would be in occupation of Galicia for a few years after the end of the war, until the country is seriously denazified. Technically this would be illegal under the same international law by which Israel is indicted for the Gaza war. Comparisons between the two situations would be specious, however.

As for the central region of Ukraine, including Kiev, it is noted for a weak sense of identity. The different linguistic groups in Ukraine more easily mix there. They do not quite see themselves as Russian, but they have little use for Galician nationalism either.

After some hesitation, these people will likely follow the reasoning of some Galician pockets in the southeast of Ukraine who eventually voted to join Russia. That is, it is better to be part of a successful state than a failing one. If not, they can be part of Galicia.

Breaking up Ukraine will actually reconnect parts of Europe with each other.

Ukraine always was, like Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, an artificial state concocted by great powers to keep small nations under control. It can create an obstacle to natural transport and communication lines across Europe and into Asia. This is how the western powers have used Ukraine.

It seems some Russian officials have stated off the record that Russia will insist on access to the border with Hungary. Obviously, Russia needs to defeat the west’s geostrategic games of keeping it cut off from Europe.

Several European countries are asserting their autonomy within the European Union. They are resisting the agenda of the “Eurocracy” in Brussels, which wants to build itself up and dissolve national states. Their challenge now is to link up with each other and develop common borders and trade corridors.

Hungary occupies a central position in Europe. It would link Russia with two other countries presently resisting the Eurocracy; Slovakia and Serbia. This could form the basis for a trade and defence alliance.

Such an alliance would benefit all of Europe. It would provide a way for cheap Russian energy to come back into Europe, reviving its economies. It would also enable a “belt and road” type transportation link across Eurasia to China.

Such a development would be a disaster to the Eurocracy and the American hegemon. It would be a great benefit to everyone else but especially to ordinary people in Europe. It could prevent any further conflicts in Europe.

The biggest winners in the Russian victory over Ukraine will be the people of the former Ukraine. They will finally be released from the trap they have been in since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and especially since 2014.

This area of the world, called at various times Cimmeria, Oium, or Tauris, may be repopulated again, this time for good. With rivalries between empires and aggressive nationalisms eliminated by a strong international system, the area may finally reach its full potential. People could live and prosper there, without becoming objects of plunder and conquest, and imperial rivalries.

Roll forward, Russians. You are doing exactly the right thing. Finally.