From Gaza War to Nuclear War

April 22, 2024

The Justice of Boiling Frogs

The international situation keeps getting more intense. The commentary about it keeps getting more idiotic. The boiling frog metaphor is in vogue now.

Everybody thinks their ‘side’ are master strategists. They are gradually turning up the heat on their opponents, boiling them like the frogs of the story, who could not detect gradually heated water until too late. I have found no record of anyone trying this out on real frogs.

The universe of self sagacious half wits is also obsessed with the idea of a nuclear war. It is as if they really want something like that. Every time two major powers start throwing actual weaponry at each other, they talk as though armageddon is arriving tomorrow.

What to do if a nuclear war happens, is also a continual topic on the net. It ranges from the survivalists on one hand, on how to store food and build bomb shelters. On the other are the doomers who advise that ‘world war three’ will last half an hour and be the end of the world, and it is inevitable.

All this is worth a blog in itself. However, the basic truth is that, while a flat out nuclear war could indeed wipe out everything above cockroaches, less drastic scenarios are more likely. This is not to say that the possibility is remote or that nuclear disarmament would not be a very good idea.

Even a small nuclear exchange could effect the atmosphere for some years, reduce harvests, and create huge supply chain problems. This would create huge problems for people all over the world. Of course if the nukes landed right near you, that is a much more serious set of problems.

However, there is not much individuals can do to protect themselves from the consequences of global disruptions from various forms of war. We rely on competent governments to plan for emergent situations and lesser disruptions. If we are under a government which simply cannot govern, and we are not rich, we are vulnerable.

Nuclear Zionism

The single most important fact most people twaddling about the Gaza conflict are unaware of, is that Israel is a nuclear power. The Zionists have been very good at getting away with denying things and they have denied this. They have had “the bomb” since about 1970.

They have missiles with a pretty good range but they are obsolete and easy to take down. Israel does not have good missile technology; a very key fact in its conflict with Iran and friends. They have submarines which could launch missiles but they are dieselectric and so have limited submerged range.

Israel is considered to have between two and four hundred nuclear warheads. Their design and power is unknown. If they all went off at once, they could wipe out most of the middle east and cause significant world atmospheric disturbance.

The Zionist state is stupid to have nuclear weapons. It would be a final act of a fanatical death wish for it to use them. Zionists are good at stupid, fanatical, and death wishes if they cannot get their way.

The Zionists were close to using their nuclear weapon in 1973. Israel had lost its ground war with Egypt. Israeli Prime minister Golda Meir told American Secretary of State Kissinger that if Egypt advanced any further, she was going to fry Cairo.

Kissinger hurried off to Cairo to give Egyptian leader Sadat this news. Sadat ordered his army to pull back from Mitla pass and accepted a cease fire. Eventually Sadat cut a deal with the Israelis, who withdrew from Sinai.

This deal lead to peace on Israel’s southern front. This gave it a free hand to go and occupy south Lebanon. This eventually lead to the rise of Hezbollah, which eventually expelled Israel from south Lebanon. The deal has also had dire consequences for the Gazans, down to the present calamity.

One element of this 1973 war was that the Soviet foreign minister, Gromyko, informed Kissinger that if Israel used a nuclear weapon, the Soviets were going to wipe out Israel. It is unclear if Sadat was aware of this. Kissinger did not reveal this until many years later.

Zionists are very good at using their powerful networks to rewrite history. Unless people bother to find out, they usually believe that the Israeli army won the “Yom Kippur” war of 1973. They also left south Lebanon because they decided to leave, not because they were routed by Hezbollah.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, large numbers of Russian Jews moved to Israel. Russia decided for awhile that Israel was an ally of theirs. Now they are disillusioned and disgusted with Israel.

The old Soviet Union had a stated doctrine that they were going to nuke any country which launched a nuclear first strike. It is not clear if the present Russian government still subscribes to this. They have told the Americans that they will strike first if they believe an attack on them is imminent.

Russia has the strongest nuclear force in the world. Because the Americans let their development programs lapse, Russia is a generation ahead in missile technology. They may be able to take the American nuclear force out in a first strike, leaving Uncle Sam unable to retaliate unless he wants his cities fried.

Russia would probably be able to stop an Israeli strike while it is still in the air.

The biggest reason for the Zionist obsession with Iran is its technical potential to quickly develop a nuclear weapon. They have been trying to get the Americans to attack Iran for thirty years. Iran’s ruling religious leaders have a religious idea that nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam.

There are rumours that the Iranian version of Islam has changed its mind about this, as a result of the recent behaviour of the Israeli government. Allah is now telling them to get their Uranium enriched, quickly. They may already have up to five crude bombs, but they would need some design work and testing before they have really usable bombs.

The Mullah’s motive in finally creating a nuclear arsenal is their realization of an important point. If Iran does not prepare nuclear weapons in order to defend itself, then in a nuclear showdown, someone will have to use them to deter an attack on it. Worse, if it was hit with nukes, not only Russia but China would have to respond.

Russia and China cannot allow any country to start using nuclear weapons to settle conflicts. That would include the USA, but at least the Americans are not that crazy. It is a mark of how dangerously deluded the Israelis are, that they would even contemplate this.

It is known that at one time the Israeli military had a particular, complex nuclear war fighting strategy, to be used if their conventional forces faced defeat. They likely still have it. They would not hit surrounding countries which are attacking them, creating fallout on their territory. They would blackmail major powers to stop the war on them by threatening to hit neutral, non nuclear countries which are important to the world economy.

The extreme Zionists really are this crazy. They are said to have a “Masada complex” meaning; they would rather wipe themselves out than surrender to non Jews, and to try to take everything down with them. Armageddon is a place in Israel.

cause of war

All this cheerful information creates the necessary context in which to discuss the latest development of the Gaza conflict. That is, the recent exchanges between Israel and Iran.

Like most things to do with Israel and its crimes, you could go back to the dawn of time. Israel has been obsessing about Iran from the time of the Shah’s overthrow and establishment of the Islamic republic, in 1979. The frogs really started boiling after the invasion of Syria in 2011 by the American intelligence created proxy force, Islamic State In Syria (ISIS).

Iran began sending aid to Syria, including military advisors and some specialized military forces. The Israelis began bombing them whenever they could acquire a target. After the Russians came to the aid of Syria in 2015, they became increasingly annoyed with Israel’s violations of Syrian air space.

The Iranians have developed the Al Quds force. It is a division of the Iranian revolutionary guard corps, an elite within an elite. Its purpose is to organize the defeat of “the Zionist entity” by indirect means, without triggering a regional war.

It has done a very good job so far. It helped Hezbollah to build a powerful force able to repel Israel. It was at least as critical as Russia in enabling the Syrian state to defeat ISIS.

Most importantly, it got Hamas to stop fighting against Hezbollah in Syria, get rid of the Israeli stooges among them, and find better leaders. It trained the Hamas forces and helped them build their tunnel system. Al Quds developed ways to get materials into Gaza, and to move people in and out.

The operation into Israel from Gaza, which started the present conflagration, was long planned. Iran would have preferred it to be planned awhile longer. Hamas, however, felt it could not wait. Conservative Arab states were about to sign treaties with Israel which would have been a disaster for Gaza and all Palestinians.

I have written in previous blogs that this war with Israel is the only thing which can give Gazans a chance at survival. The Israelis were exterminating them slowly and quietly. The Israeli operation into Gaza is merely doing this rapidly and loudly, and drawing world attention and disgust to it.

It has forced the Israeli army to engage directly with the Hamas and Hezbollah forces on their own territory, and lose. It has effectively destroyed the Zionist state; militarily, economically, and diplomatically. It has boiled Israel’s frog.

There are still two questions, arising from the incredible vindictiveness of the Zionist mentality. The first is whether the Gazans will be able to survive the boiling pot Israel has them in.

The second question is whether the Israelis will be able to start a regional war. That is their only way out of their dilemma. Thus Iran knows it must keep the war right on Israel’s frontiers, or inside Israel itself.

Iran’s advantage

The essential facts of the game now being played between Israel and Iran are as follows. The two countries are some distance apart. Iran has shown it has a method of striking at Israel with devastating effect.

Israel and the United States have no good means of striking at Iran. They both have strong air forces but they are too far away. Countries in between will not allow aircraft to take off from bases on their territory, or transit their air space, to attack Iran.

Conventional air forces are becoming obsolete. Bomber aircraft can fly a long way but they are slow and vulnerable to ground based air defences. Hypersonic missiles can cover great distances, and they move too fast for anything to shoot them down.

Amazingly, the USA never developed hypersonic missiles. Iran developed them, using Russian and Chinese technology and some innovations of its own.

Drones are becoming formidable weapons. They are slower, but are often hard to detect, and are very cheap. Iranians make good drones. The Russians even buy them to use on Ukrainians.

The Iranians have studied how the Russians used hypersonic missiles in combination with various types of drones to break down western designed air defence systems. They have now put this knowledge to use.

the true promise

Now, after all this contextualizing, I get to the actual game which has been played out between Israel and Iran in the past weeks.

For six months now, Israel has been using its air force, and its secret service assassination squads, to take out key Hezbollah and Quds force officers, and provoke a response from Iran. They finally resorted to attacking the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus. They killed several people, including two Iranian generals.

The USA and Israel have been trying to tear down international law, the rules by which nations deal with each other. Now they have broken one of the last and most valued of these rules. You do not attack embassies.

The Iranians did not appreciate the April fool’s day prank, and they now had a solid justification to retaliate. They took their time preparing “Operation True Promise.” Then they gave us all the ‘Saturday night in Tel Aviv’ show.

I even stopped watching the Canada versus Czechia women’s semi final ice hockey game to watch this on Al Jazeera and certain Youtube channels. It was something to see.

Idiot commentators raved about the efficiency of Israeli air defences, as Iranians drones hung in the air over Tel Aviv, all lit up, not dropping to attack, doing nothing to avoid the Israeli rockets and aircraft which shot them down. Of course, none of them asked how these drones got all the way from Iran to Tel Aviv, after the Iranians told Israel they were coming.

Israel never gave its population any warning. Thus we could enjoy video of Israeli night clubbers running around in a panic, hiding against walls, trampling each other to get into air raid shelters. One could imagine what a typical Gazan would think of this.

Then we saw other video, obviously taken out in the dark country side. Rocket after rocket moved very fast through the air. There was no counterfire against them. Each one landed on the same point on the horizon, with a big flash.

The day after, we learned there had been exactly one civilian casualty. This was a bedouin girl who was injured by shrapnel from the sky. This could only have come from an Israeli intercept, exploding on a target.

Iran caused significant damage to two Israeli air bases. There were no casualties because in this instance Israel listened to Iran’s warnings to get its people under cover.

The reports from Gaza were that this was the quietest night since the war started. The usually ubiquitous buzzing reconnaissance drones took the night off. The mad bombers found something else to do.

Of course, Israel hit the Gazans extra hard the next few nights, out of revenge. 

Iran has warned Israel that if it does anything to retaliate, Iran will strike again, ten times harder. Of course, the Israelis are not listening, but there is little they can do for now, to retaliate. Iran has even moved its ‘reconnaissance ship’ out of the Red Sea.

A few days later, Iran shot down some reconnaissance type drones which had been snooping around their nuclear facilities in Isfahan. Iran discounted the incident. Some members of the Israeli government denied that these drones were Israeli. Other Israeli politicians blew that story by denouncing their military for such a “lame” response.

the boiling frogs metaphor

This is the present situation of the war between Israel and Gaza. It is turning into a war of the Zionist movement against the entire planet. The Israeli leadership has started to realize it has lost.

The assault into Rafah has been called off for the very simple reason that the Gazan defence forces would chew it up. The Israeli army has been losing people, killed, disabled, or demotivated, at a rate it cannot sustain. The Israeli government is in another one of its panics because the International Criminal Court is making rumblings about issuing arrest warrants over the genocide.

However, Gaza, Iran and its other allies, and the world outside of Zionist influence, have not won yet.

As humanity learned in the last world war, it is not impossible to defeat a government of narcissistic maniacs who have an entire population brainwashed to their ideology. But defeating them and winning against them are not the same thing. To win you have to destroy the real source of their power. That gets even harder in the nuclear age.

It is very hard to predict how this war will play out. There will be no happy end. There could be a very grim one.

Hamas looks like it could fight indefinitely. However, the Gazan population cannot survive in their present condition indefinitely. They are being boiled in a pot they cannot jump out of.

As stated above, Israel is cooked and are just starting to realize it. Yet they are in a pot of their own making and are too stupid and fanatical to jump out. They have to turn off the heat on the Palestinians.

The Atlantic world, the western nations still run by the old imperialist oligarchies, created Israel for their purposes. Their little Frankenstein monster is now controlling them. Their unwillingness to restrain Israel is putting them in a pot and the heat is rising.

Iran and its Quds force have emerged as the masters of frog boiling. They remain fairly cool, themselves.

There is enough to say about the Gaza war to fill up many blogs. It is now the most important thing going on in the world. It supercedes the Ukraine war in this.

The dangers of it breaking into a nuclear war are exaggerated, but not negligible. The Zionist state is very dangerous. Removing Netanyahu will solve little. Any other potential ‘Rosh HaMemshala’, prime minister, will be about as bad.

Ultimately, the Israeli state must be eliminated. As long as it exists, it is a danger to the world.

To conclude, my apologies to The Cradle for ‘borrowing’ their ‘boiling frogs’ metaphor. Enough said, for now.

post script.

 Just to give readers even more pleasant dreams, there is an internet legend going around. It says, that in the last few days an Israeli jet tried to get across Jordan and Iraq with a nuclear weapon aboard, bound for Iran. It was shot down by a Russian jet. Motive unknown.

Of course, all parties concerned deny this. Good night.