After Ukraine

The lines will be redrawn

It is time for me to write about the Ukraine war again, and matters arising from it. The situation is evolving very slowly. The daily news about it has gotten very boring.

There is an old saying; history happens very fast when you are reading it. It happens very slowly when you are living through it. The Ukraine war has been going on for thirty months and it feels like it has been there forever.

However, it will not be going on much longer. It must be understood that it is not just a war between Ukraine and Russia. It is a proxy war being waged by NATO on Russia, using Ukraine.

Not Ukraine, but NATO, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has almost run out of any means to keep fighting Russia. The armies of all the NATO countries have been shown to be hollowed out. They have no capacity to wage an industrial war.

Yet the rhetoric coming from the politicians and media in the Atlantisphere, the countries roughly the same as the NATO membership, is delusional. It is even becoming tiresome to talk about how delusional the Atlanticist financialist elite is.

There is an old saying about the old Austrian empire. Its officials constantly lied to the press and then believed what they read in the papers. The European Union bureaucrats, the American deep state, the Ottawa Mandarinate, all are lost in their own propaganda.

Most of their public goes along with it. The most depressing thing is that most of the people who reject the Atlantic hegemony’s narrative do so because they are instead captured by other, equally nutty, narratives. Only a portion of the roughly one third of the population who examine what they are told, nonetheless see the situation for what it is.

A large part of these sentinel intelligences more or less reflexively accept the false narratives because there is no benefit to looking into it. The Ukraine war is sufficiently remote from the lives of ordinary North Americans that it is no danger to their physical or emotional well being. Some emotional work is required to be willing to understand a situation when most people do not want to think about it.

In other words, it is tiresome to be right all the time when everyone else is wrong or does not care.

So, if you are reading this, you must really be interested in the topic. You know you cannot change anything. But you want to actually understand what is happening in Ukraine.

Probably you would just rather know the truth. The red pill over the blue pill. You want be be able to see trouble coming.

The outcome of the Ukraine war really will have some effects on people living elsewhere. They will not be obvious or immediate. The defeat of the Atlantisphere in Ukraine signals its downfall and that will soon lead to a profound change in government in these countries, which includes Canada.

The exact changes, and their effects on our lives, are impossible to predict. They could lead to an improved situation. They could lead to a serious collapse of living standards.

People in the United States, especially, are very pessimistic right now. A lot of them think a social breakdown and even a civil war is coming. People in Canada and, it seems, most of Western Europe, are less Gothic about it all, but see that the way things are run has to change.

So, the defeat of Ukraine, and of that other Atlanticist proxy,  Israel, signal not just the strategic defeat of the old hegemony, but the end of its era. Enough is said about how the Ukraine war got started, and how is being fought. Focus is gradually turning to how it will end, and what will happen after.

——————————-

For a more thorough review of how the Ukraine war has developed, read my previous post about it, way back in January now.

Ukraine is a very rich piece of territory, but is very open to invasion. It is always right in the middle of conflicts between great powers, and before that migrations of warlike tribes. Thus it keeps getting depopulated and then repopulated.

We can hope that this time history does end for Ukraine and this time it stays populated. That could happen when Russia, which will dominate Europe for the foreseeable future, gains full control of it and rebuilds it. That is the necessary outcome, any other only means more conflict.

The root of the present problem is in that the Bolsheviks created Ukraine, and in the way they did it. The idea seems to have been to lump a good number of Russians, and some other ethnicities, into one state with the Galicians. This was to try to control the toxic nationalist tendencies of Galicians.

It is said of Galicians that their entire national identity is in hating other nationalities, but especially Russians. However, there are not that many of them and they are a minority even in Ukraine. In Soviet times, a combination of education and suppression of nationalism nearly eliminated this cultural tendency.

But when Ukraine became independent, the Atlanticist covert services reintroduced toxic nationalism and used it to gradually take control of the country. In 2014, they organized a coup in which Galician neoNazis took control of the government. Russian speaking people in the south east of the country, the Donbass, rebelled and were able to drive the coup government from their cities.

This led to a kind of ‘slow war’ which simmered on for eight years. The “west” was able to build up the Ukrainian nationalist army. It became apparent an attack was coming on the rebel Donbass republics which their militias would not be able to overcome. The rhetoric of Ukronazis raised a serious concern about genocide, a mass murder of civilians.

The Russians intervened. However, their army was still in peace time mode and they did not have enough troops to force a Ukrainian surrender. Their aim was to force a negotiation and an agreement on Russian conditions.

These were; the demilitarization of Ukraine, the suppression of neoNazi groups, and autonomy for Russian and other ethnic minorities in Ukraine. For the third time in the conflict, the coup regime and their Western handlers signed a truce, and then tore it up as soon as they had rearmed, and renewed the war.

Now the Russians really went to war. They began building up their army. They built a line of defence works around the Donbass. The Ukrainian army exhausted itself trying to break through it.

This war has shown that we are in an era in which technology makes attack very hard in war. As in the first world war, it must be won by attrition. Russia has shown a much greater ability to keep an army supplied and able to wage attrition war.

Because of the way the Atlanticist countries have organized their economies and armies, they cannot fight this kind of war. They have been unable to keep the Ukraine army supplied without depleting their own limited stocks. Were NATO to intervene directly in the war with its own forces, they would do even worse than the Ukrainian army.

It is said that you lose an attrition war the same way you go bankrupt; first slowly, then suddenly. The final collapse of Ukraine is coming on more quickly. Fortified points encircling the Donbass, which have defied the Russian army for two years, are now falling. The Ukrainian casualty rate is rising and they have no more replacements.

Ukraine is in a strange situation. The economy has been in collapse for a long time due to extreme neoliberal economic policies and corruption. The birth rate collapsed after the year 2000. As well, most young people left the country for better opportunities elsewhere.

Thus, there are very few men under age 25 to conscript. They have adopted a unique policy of not drafting men age 18 to 25 to avoid a “demographic extinction”. So, the fighting has been done by older men who have not been able to get out of the country.

The regime in Kiev is starting to collapse. The president has suspended elections and made himself a dictator. He is becoming very delusional and paranoid. He seems to be protected by western organized security forces, but his underlings are becoming rebellious.

Unable to remove him yet, they turn on each other. They are now murdering each other. These are very violent and ruthless people.

——————————-

A decision point is coming for the Russians. Considering the way the Ukronazis and their handlers acted the last three times, the Russians would be idiots to sign another truce with them. Yet they have to be seen to be willing to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Russia cannot tolerate the present regime in Ukraine, for obvious reasons. There is a huge, irrational hate directed against them from the west. They remember the efforts to conquer or outright exterminate them, during the second world war.

It is more than just the ‘Anti Russia’ thing of the Galicians and a few other ethnicities. The Russian state has always been a target of the Atlanticist hegemony, because they can never bring it under their control. The Russians understand well that this is the real enemy they are fighting.

There is an old saying; better a wise enemy than a foolish ally. The Russians have wise allies and foolish enemies. The Chinese and Iranians understand that if Russia falls, they are next on the Atlanticist target list.

The people in official positions in NATO countries are, almost universally, very incompetent. Officials from countries outside the Western, Atlantic media and cultural bubble are baffled by them. They wonder who is really in charge in these countries.

The ‘Eurocracy’ and the Washington ‘swamp’ talk about ‘hybrid war’. That is, using a combination of methods to destroy or subdue their opponents. These include economic sanctions and sabotage, trade wars, internal political destabilization, assassinations, diplomatic isolation, and of course, proxy wars.

The Atlantic hegemony has tried all this on Russia and it has all rebounded on them. They have isolated and destabilized themselves, and ruined their own economies. The Russians are growing stronger, not weaker. The Atlanticists are unable to believe this.

The Russians have been focussed on building and testing their new army, and on weakening the proxy Ukrainian army. They want to keep their own casualties to a minimum. They want to limit destruction of infrastructure, to reduce their rebuilding job after.

The Russians really have no choice but to occupy the entire Ukraine. Any part that is left under NATO control will continue to be used as a base against them. The majority of the population of Ukraine are ethnic Russians.

The Russians soon will have to roll up Ukraine. When they do, they will have to move fast, before NATO can react. Also, before the Ukronazis can execute a scorched earth plan for their NATO masters.

This is a real concern. Consistently, the Ukraine army has destroyed everything as they retreat. If a town is captured by the Russian army before they can level it, they destroy it with artillery.

The Russians will seal the borders with NATO countries. They will avoid storming large cities. They will have to do what they did after world war two, and slowly liquidate Nationalist units who were left behind to create havoc. This will result in some casualties for them, but they now have enough force to do the job.

Of course, if any attack on Russian forces came from NATO territory, that would mean direct NATO war with Russia. The Russian general staff is said to have developed a plan to defeat NATO in a “31 month” war. Of course, they have no interest in penetrating deep into NATO territory, but they would eliminate any further threat from NATO.

Russia has enough forces to deal with any attempt by NATO to cause trouble. There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, on the Baltic coast, surrounded on land by countries hostile to Russia. Now that Finland and Sweden have so very foolishly joined NATO, it could decide to cut Russian transport in the Baltic. This would go very badly for NATO, and especially for Finland.

Poland has a more robust army than most other NATO countries and the Poles are expanding it. Some Atlanticists think Poland will become the next proxy, when Ukraine falls. However, Russia would grind them up as they did Ukraine.

There are some cultural elements in Poland with an anti Russian jag similar to Galicians. Yet it is hard to believe the Poles would be stupid enough to let themselves be used and destroyed in the same way Ukraine was. Poles tend not to like Gallicians either, because  Gallicians do not like them. In fact, they killed a lot of Polish civilians during the word war.

—————————————

It has been shown in areas already liberated by Russia, that when the guns of the Ukronazi lunatics are no longer on them, most residents of Ukraine want to be absorbed into Russia. There would be a rump Ukraine in the Galician speaking northwest, under close Russian supervision.

In some parts of Ukraine, the people would like to be reunited with their fellow Hungarians. In another area, they would like to become the nation of Ruthenia. This is either as an independent state, or as one of the autonomous national homelands of the Russian federation.

In the small country of Moldova, between Romania and Ukraine, there is a sizeable Russian minority. After the fall of the Soviet Union, they were treated so badly by the western oriented Moldovan government that they revolted and created their own state; Transdnistria. Russia intervened to help them survive.

Since then Transdnistria has been one of the “frozen conflicts” around the edge of the former Soviet Union. They have had a precarious existence, but so far their neighbours have not attacked them again. But when Ukraine wraps up, it is considered certain that they will be joining Russia, regardless of what NATO or Moldova thinks about it.

Despite two Scandinavian countries senselessly joining it last year, NATO has begun disintegrating due to the Ukraine war. Countries led by competent and conscientious governments are objecting to the drive for war with Russia. Hungary and Slovakia would have a border with Russia once Ukraine is gone, and would like to be out of NATO.

The Chinese “belt and road” program needs a line into Europe. Part of the aim of the Ukraine war has been to seal Europe off from the east. With the end of Ukraine, the rail line being run from China to Russia could then go through into Hungary. Budapest would make a good transportation hub for the rest of Europe.

NATO attacked and broke up Yugoslavia during the nineties. The Soviet Union had fallen and was no longer available as a Yugoslav ally. The Serbians fought to maintain Yugoslavia, and then for their national autonomy from NATO. They were subject to a lot of abuse, and were actually bombed during 1999.

Parts of Serbia, notably Kosovo, were invaded by ethnic Albanians, and a gangster state created there. Ethnic Serbs were murdered or driven out.

There was a state in Yugoslavia called Bosnia. It was one of these “lump together” states which Stalinist bureaucracies seem to like to create. With the fall of Yugoslavia, a vicious three way ethnic conflict developed there, driven by western covert services.

It was the Bosnian Serbians who were irritating the Atlanticist western hegemony, so they got the worst of it. They got blamed for it all. What the Bosnian Serbs really wanted was to be allowed to join the rest of Serbia.

Serbia has a border with Hungary and is increasingly economic cooperation with it, outside of European Union interference. As the Ukraine war ends and NATO continues to decline, more help should be coming to Serbia from its long time ally, Russia. This should result in the Bosnian Serbs finally being able to join Serbia.

As well, the Bosnian Croats would like to be reunited with their fellow Croats. The present government of Croatia is also more inclined toward autonomy and the interests of its own public. However, they are more careful about inviting retaliation from the hegemony.

Another former Yugoslav state, Macedonia, would like to be rid of the Albanian gangsters in the western parts of their country. With Russian help close at hand if needed, they may be able to achieve this.

These are all the border changes or population shifts which are likely as a result of the defeat of NATO.

——————————-

The really big changes in Europe will be institutional. The most important of these changes is that NATO will be dissolved. At the least, it must be chased to the other side of the North Atlantic.

NATO, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is the main tool for American control over Western Europe. As with the old “Triple entente” that started World War One, it is a huge threat to the peace and security of European countries. It can do nothing but drag them all into someone else’s war.

Parts of the Eurocracy want to disconnect Europe from the USA and NATO, create a “Euroforce,” and have the European Union acting as a great power in its own right. But these same people all hate Russia, and believe they will overcome it.

This gets to another big reason for the hate against Russia. Europe grew great in the past three centuries by conquering and exploiting colonies. That era in history is past, and in future Europe will be nothing special in the world.

In order to prosper in future, Europe needs good relations with Russia. It needs the resources coming from there. It needs Russian markets and transport links into the east.

So, Russia must be allowed into the club. But it is so large that it will inevitably dominate the club, the way Germany has at times, and France did for a long while. But Russia has never shared the values of the Eurocracy, or the old European aristocracy.

This means an old, established elite has to get out of the way. There is much written about the history of this elite. Its origins may go well back into the middle ages. That gets beyond the subject of this piece.

The present Eurocracy is very tied to neoliberalism, the organization of society to sustain an oligarchic elite. It is part of the global financial capitalist network which has caused the world so much trouble. Whenever it has been under threat, it has set up Nazi type movements and created wars.

They are famous for setting up wars so that they win no matter how the war goes. This is not working as well for them this time. They have lost their technological advantage, thus their military and economic superiority.

They have set up the European Union in a very undemocratic way, in an attempt to insure their continuity. This is dragging the European economy and society down. Popular resistance to the EU is growing in Europe.

However, the public of most countries are astute enough to realize that “exits” are not an answer to the problem. The system the Eurocrats created cannot be simply torn down. Something like it is necessary, but it must be reconstructed.

This does not mean trying to “reform from within”. Naive people who enter a system created by an exclusive group to preserve and project their own power, with the idea they will “incrementally” reform things, are incrementally chewed up and spit out by that system.

Change must be forced from an outside position. That does not mean, from outside of the community. It means, from outside the rules of the ‘in group’.

Countries, and parties and social groupings within countries, need to work together across national, cultural, and philosophic divides. The process of breaking up the Eurocracy’s organs and replacing them with useful institutions is a very big topic. But a few countries, mostly smaller ones, are showing the way.

It is important for EU countries to not give up their national currencies, or if they have, to relaunch them. Government leaders must have the back bone to negate EU rules where necessary, and to challenge the Eurocrats to do anything about it.

As the Eurocracy is discredited, this process will accelerate. People will look to Russia and China for help in rebuilding their economies and social systems. As well, for more democratic ways of controlling needed supranational institutions.

Europe does need a supranational government. Russia needs to be part of it. This is necessary if Europe is to maintain or regain its standard of living.

Globally, we are said to be transforming into a ‘multipolar’ world. This means that the Atlantic empire is being replaced by a system of ‘Multipoles’. Explaining all this is definitely a topic for several future blogs.

Basically, economic blocs, centred around a ‘pole’, are evolving in each part of the world, each with the means to sustain a modern economy. They need to combine a resource base with a manufacturing base, with a good sized population. Small countries could prosper outside this system but they have to be well governed and technically advanced.

Europe, from “Lisbon to Vladivistok”, is a natural bloc. But there are still powerful interests for whom such a development would mean the end of their own power. How these older powers are overcome, and this new way of organizing the world is shaped up, will be the story of the next fifty years of history.

A generation ago, when the Atlanticist empire still seemed to be supreme forever, one of its court philosophers wrote about “the end of history”. Since then, oops! History has started up again. The conclusion of the Ukraine war and what follows after it will be an important inflection point in the history of Europe and the world.

Keep reading my blog. I will keep discussing these developments and their implications. History is only boring if you are reading the official version of it.